Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Trump has promised big but can he deliver ?

We are also eight years into an economic recovery in the US, which is also very unusual. Most times in the US, every four years to 7-8 years, we’ve had economic setbacks since the beginning of the republic. Again, it does not always have to happen that way, but it nearly always has. Yes, we are four months into 2017, but I am more worried about the next couple of years. Mr Trump has promised some wonderful things.

He has promised lower taxes, which is great for any economy and America is the largest in the world. He has promised to rebuild infrastructure, and that is wonderful, and we need it. He has promised to bring US dollars home—we have $3 trillion sitting outside the US by American companies and he has promised tax incentives to bring that home. He has promised to cut regulations and controls in the US economy—all of that is fantastic. If he does all this, and does not go to war, and also does not engage in a trade war, we can continue to have a good time for the foreseeable future. But I am skeptical because interest rates will be going higher, and because it has been eight years since we’ve had no problems in the US. For the US to continue this run, it can happen, but it has to be on a lot more debt. If all of that leads to a bubble…

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Impressed by India and Mr Modi | Considering to buy Indian stocks

India passed the GST and that astonished me. I am surprised that Mr Modi’s government got that through. It is a historic move as this has been a very contentious issue among Indian politicians for several years.

You say FDI flows into India are at record highs, and it is certainly not me. I am surprised with the FDI inflows—while Modi has undertaken small reforms, and cleaned up some stuff, I am not aware of any big steps to boost FDI. Yes, I am impressed, and I see that the markets are at an all-time high; currency is going up—they are making new highs without me, and that does not make me happy.

This has made me realize that something is happening in India. When GST was passed, I reconsidered investing in India, and I thought, “wait a minute—this is going to work”. I am positively impressed, but I’am not back to investing in India yet—the markets are at an all-time high, but I don’t want to jump on to a moving train. When you jump on to a moving train, you’ll get hurt.

I missed the bus in India. If Modi continues doing stuff like GST, then not just me—everybody has to pay a lot more attention to India. This does not mean that I won’t have another chance to enter—India is currently on my list of something to do.

Monday, April 24, 2017

Its not different this time


The Fed will continue to raise interest rates—we cannot continue like this—negative interest rates in most parts of the world are destroying a lot of people. 

Many pension plans, insurance companies and trusts are suffering badly now—you are going to have some pension plans in America go bankrupt, or not earn any money. They have the obligations to meet their promises as people continue to get older. When interest rates go higher, they are going to make bonds go lower—it is going to help the US dollar. Historically, in the US, if the Fed raised interest rates four times, it meant the stock market would go down and go down substantially for a while—it is clear that the Fed will raise interest rates four times, and it does not mean that it has to happen that way. 

One could counter and say, rates going up from zero to four times is not such a big deal and, therefore, it is different this time. Four of the most dangerous words in the financial markets are: “it’s different this time”. It is very dangerous when you hear people say that.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Jim Rogers on Russia and Russian Debt

The only place I am looking to invest right now is Russian government bonds because the yields are very high—the Rouble is down a lot. For whatever reason, Russia, which has been the most hated market in the world, is becoming less hated—more countries and politicians are reconsidering Russia. I’ve learnt in my life that if you buy things that are hated, they will make a lot of money even if takes a couple of years.



Russia has a convertible currency and does not have much debt. I am invested in Russia. One reason why Russia does not have a high level of debt is that no one was willing to lend them money—and that is not necessarily a good thing.

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

US Dollar will go much higher due to its "safe haven" status

I own a lot of US dollars, and the reason I own it is because of the turmoil that I see coming, and people look for a safe haven in times like that and the dollar, rightly or wrongly, is considered a safe haven.

Often, when the US dollar is very strong, gold goes down. I own gold, but I’ve not been buying gold in recent years. But if gold goes down sufficiently, I will sell my US dollars and buy gold. I expect the dollar to go substantially higher, and I hope I can sell then.


Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Power can corrupt people

The world situation is more worrying. Mr Trump has now bombed Syria. Many American presidents love war, and Mr Trump had said he was a non-interventionist.

Now look at him! He is involved with Syria, and also saying he is going to get involved with North Korea. These can potentially not be good for the world. 

If the Middle East blows up in the next year or two, it won’t help the markets. It will help Russia and oil. It won’t help India or China. Mr Trump has promised to have trade wars with Mexico and China. He has not done it so far and so, maybe, is just another lying politician. But he said the same of Syria and then he intervened. He has said North Korea better watch out. He met with the Chinese and did not get anything. Power corrupts. Interest rates are going higher no matter what happens. The French and German elections are coming up—they could be disruptive.