Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Global stock markets to face problems next year 2017

The main factor right now is Mr Trump and his talk - which we are all watching here. But again, now we are going to have to start focusing on interest rates and what’s happening in the real economy, where there’s a lot of debt. 

So, for instance, in India and China too, there is a lot of debt now. There was not as much debt there earlier, even ten years ago. So we all will have to start paying attention to the interest rate burden which everybody is going to suffer.

And unless Mr. Trump can do something about those three trillion dollars of American corporate money overseas - which would help finance the things he is talking about - we all are going to face problems. I expect problems next year in the financial markets worldwide. I don’t expect good times.

Monday, December 26, 2016

US corporations have 3 TRILLION DOLLARS parked overseas

I own a lot of the U.S. dollar, and I have l for a while as you know. I own it partly because there is a lot of turmoil coming and people look for a safe haven in times of turmoil. They think the U.S. dollar is a safe haven. Mind you, it’s not, but people still think it is. Plus, American corporations have three trillion - trillion with a ‘T’ - U.S. dollars outside America.

Mr Trump says he is going to figure out a way to get them to bring that money back. If he gets three trillion dollars to come back into the U.S., that’s going to do a lot for the U.S. dollar and it is going to help the markets for a while. So, the good news - we all know the good news that’s what we are focusing at the moment, I own a lot of U.S. dollars because of that.

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Russian stocks attractive due to positive developments

Russia is a hated stock market, very depressed right now. I went Russia last week and as you probably know, Mr Trump says he likes Mr Putin. The new Secretary of State in the U.S. is a great friend of Russia, he loves Russia... so the pressure is coming off for Russia. The person who well may be the President of France also likes Mr. Putin, more and more politicians in Finland, Norway are saying ‘we like Mr Putin’.

So Russia is the market which I still find attractive. It’s very depressed still but lot of things are starting to happen.

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

America needs Trump's infrastructure rebuilding

Well Mr Trump has said he is going to cut taxes. That’s great for any economy. He has said he is going to rebuild America’s failed infrastructure. We desperately need it, it has been a problem, and the market is paying attention to that. He said he is going to deregulate a lot of things. The market loves it because they expect it to be better. He said he is going to cut taxes for corporations. Which means their profits would be higher.

But I doubt where the money for all of this will come from. At the moment everybody is watching the good news, and not thinking about the possible bad news. 

Mr Trump has insisted often that he will have trade wars with China, India and other people, and the market is ignoring that right now. Maybe he’s not going to do it. If he does stay away from the trade wars, the American economy will be better next year, as will the world economy. But, yes the market is far ahead of itself at the moment.

Monday, December 19, 2016

The markets will continue to go up regardless of the Fed raising rates

You know that Federal Reserve, last December said they will raise interest rate four times in 2016. They raised interest rate once. So I just don’t pay attention to them. They follow the market. But, you should follow the market and not the central banks.

The thing with the Federal Reserve is that the market will tell them what to do! I suspect, as you know, interest rates have already started going up in the market.

So I suspect the market will continue to go higher, whether the Fed raises interest rates once or four times, I don’t particularly care. I’m watching the markets. And the interest rates in the market are going higher.

Monday, December 5, 2016

On the latest OPEC output cut deal

On OPEC deal announcement to slash oil output
Lets wait and see if they actually do it. We have had these announcements for 30 or 40 years, most of them have not pan out but it certainly makes oil go up today and it will probably go up for a while. The fundamentals of oil continue to improve. Exploration has been going down. The supply has been going down and will continue to go down.

On Iran 
They need money, lets see if they actually do it. I am skeptical.

Where Crude Oil could go
Crude prices fluctuate up and down. They have ranged between $40 and $30 and that will probably continue for a while, more likely towards the upside than the downside. Yes, $60 a barrel is not an unusual number. It is still way down from where crude prices were just two years ago

Own energy
I own oil but I'm a terrible market timer. One should own energy, as the energy reserves continue to decline worldwide. Saudi Arabia has not had a major find in many years, nobody has. Iraq, Nigeria and Iran nobody has found a lot of oil, except for the frackers. The fundamentals of oil continue to improve.

Trump effect on commodities
He said he is going to cut taxes which is great always for any country and he said he is going to increase infrastructure spending. So you have demand growing in the US and the countries supplying the US. The problem of course is where is the money going to come from. This could go on for a while certainly for commodities.

Monday, November 21, 2016

Importance of historical knowledge when investing

How do you know when to sell an asset?

Well, when people are getting hysterical, you can sense it just by market action ... If you read the press, you can see when everybody's talking about whatever it is that's the best thing, something going to change everybody's life ... it's a whole new era ... You hear the same words every time, every time -they are the same.Oh, how many new eras have we had in history? It's just amazing.

You're talking about using history to interpret the current market.

Yes ... If you understand history, you're probably going to be a much better investor. But you need to understand the basics of how the world works ... And, if you know what's happened before, then you'll probably be a step ahead of figuring out what's going to happen.

What in today's markets do you see and think, "10-15 years from now we're going to look back at this and say, `We were fools'?

Well, in New York, on the stock exchange there are only like 10 or 15 stocks that are holding up the averages. They're all the big stocks like Google, Amazon, Apple ... and all of those companies are going to go on forever, and get bigger. Perhaps some of them will, but, I know, you know, if you look back at the data . This is an extreme example, but if you look back at the Dow Jones industrials Average from 100 years ago, I think there's only one stock left, that's still in.  

Nothing goes on forever. In fact, in one of my books I talk about the need to understand that everything is changing. You pick any year in history, 1900, everything that people knew in 1900, 15 years later it was totally wrong. Everything changed.

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Jim Rogers speaks on Gold, Oil. Fed and more

ETF.com: Are you a buyer of gold right now near $1,300/oz?

Jim Rogers: No, I’m not a buyer of gold at all. I expect another opportunity to buy gold. If it doesn't happen, that's fine, I already own plenty of gold. If and when it does go down, I hope to buy a lot more.

ETF.com: Oil doubled off its lows from earlier this year, but it seems to be having trouble breaking above $50 on a sustained basis. What's your outlook for oil, and should we be paying attention to OPEC's attempts to cut production?

Rogers: I don't pay too much attention to OPEC. They talk a lot, but even when they agree on something, somebody is always doing something else under the table. So I don't pay attention to OPEC.

As far as oil, it's is in the process of making a bottom. In two or three years, we're going to look back and say, "Oh, that's what it was doing: It was basing; it was making a bottom."

Whether that base is between $25 and $60 or between $30 and $50, who knows? But it’s in the process of making a bottom.

ETF.com: Two or three years from now, will oil prices be much higher?

Rogers: Perhaps, yes. Since the world will be in chaos with a lot of civil unrest and maybe even military unrest, I suspect that's probably a safe bet. But I'm terrible at market timing and short-term trading, so don't listen to me on something like that.

ETF.com: Where do you see the most risk of unrest in the world right now?

Rogers: Clearly, the Middle East is a powder keg; it can erupt at any time. There are all kinds of people making mistakes there. It's not as though it's just the Arabs and Israelis. A dozen different groups are making mistakes in the Middle East.

History also shows these things usually start where we're not looking, where we don't expect something. Who would’ve thought Sarajevo in 1914 [would lead to World War I]? Nobody knew what Sarajevo was, and the next thing you knew, the world was in chaos.

It's probably going to start in the Middle East, but it could be Asia. It could be anywhere.

ETF.com: After being in the financial news a lot last year and early this year, China hasn't made any waves recently. Do you foresee another shoe dropping in China, or are you comfortable buying Chinese stocks here?

Rogers: I'm not buying shares anywhere at the moment, including in China. I own Chinese shares; I haven't sold any. The world's going to have serious problems in the next couple years, and it's going to affect everybody. The Chinese are a large trading country, and anybody who trades with the outside world is going to suffer. Many Chinese companies now have debt, which was not usual 10 years ago.

Some Chinese companies are going to go bankrupt. Other parts of the Chinese economy are going to boom no matter what. Pollution cleanup in China, for instance; those guys don't care if America falls into the sea; they're too busy making money.

ETF.com: You said the world is going to have serious problems in two to three years. What do you see causing that? Where do you see that emanating from?

Rogers: The main cause is the Federal Reserve, and Washington, D.C., more broadly. They're accumulating gigantic debts and doing huge amounts of money printing. That can’t last; it's going to cause problems for all of us down the road. If you're looking for a single culprit, it's Washington, D.C.

It's already happening. In 2015, for instance, twice as many stocks were down on the New York Stock Exchange as were up. It was disguised by the averages, but the averages are dominated by 15 or 20 big stocks that never go down.

Most stock markets are down around the world. Japan is already in recession. It's just not visible to the press or to the public yet.

Something similar happened in 2007: You had Iceland go bankrupt. People didn't even know where Iceland was or anything about it. But then that led to Ireland, which led to Bear Stearns, which led to Lehman Brothers. Before long, everybody knew something was wrong.

That's the way these things always work. It starts with an outlier or marginal place, working its way through to, "Oh, my god, why didn't they tell us?" My point is, it's already happening; it's just not in the headlines yet.

ETF.com: Is there anything anyone can do—the Fed or anyone in Washington—to prevent the collapse you see coming?

Rogers: I don't know. Historically, in America, we've had economic difficulties every four to seven years since the beginning of the Republic. We're overdue for a recession, timewise.

ETF.com: You mentioned you're not buying any stocks at all. You don't have a favorite region?

Rogers: No, I'm not buying anything anywhere. I'm looking at places and I have ideas on my list, such as some of the Chinese industries that are going to do well no matter what. But mainly I'm not doing anything.

ETF.com: Do you have any opinion on the fixed-income markets? Do you see interest rates going up or down?

Rogers: I'm short junk bonds in the U.S. Interest rates have already started going up a little bit in the U.S. and other places. My view is that I wouldn't buy Treasury bonds with your money. But I know that central banks have more money than I do, so I'm only short junk bonds.

ETF.com: Last year you liked sugar, and it's turned out to be the best-performing commodity this year, with gains of nearly 50%. Do you still like sugar, and do you have any other under-the-radar investments people should take a look at?

Rogers: Sugar is going to continue to go higher over the next few years. Sugar—even though it's done well in the last year or so—is still down 70% from its all-time high. Sugar could triple and still not make an all-time high, so you can see how low it still is.

I can’t think of anything else worth buying. Some of the Chinese companies ... like I told you, pollution control: Those companies are going to do extremely well no matter what happens in the world.

I'm just waiting, because I know that when everything collapses, even good, sound companies that are booming usually go down for a while, too.

Monday, November 14, 2016

Trump, taxes and US economy

It is a Trump victory then, how are you placing your bets? But what about the commodity trade?

I suspect oil would probably not go down because people will be worried about war and some of the things he might do. I am long on the US dollar. Mr Trump says he is going to have trade wars. Trade war usually makes a currency go up at least for a while. Gold I suspect may go down because people will be worried about what he might do and agriculture I suspect will stay the same, may be even rise.

Do you think a new cycle has started for commodities because suddenly the prices of the major commodities are up by about 50% to 70% from the recent lows?

Whether it is a new cycle or continuation of the old cycle, I do think commodities will be going up for a while. All bull markets and all bear markets have big consolidations. Commodities have been consolidating and they are rising again.

For the longest time we have identified that China is a real problem for the commodity bull market. Not that the data points from China has changed, but one is getting a sense that at least the worst of the contractions for the Chinese economies is behind us. Do you think China once again will play the lead role in determining where commodity prices would move?

Remember, China is one-third the size of the US economy or less than one-third the size of the European economy. Yes they are important but American, European and Japan economies are much more important to all markets and certainly to commodity markets.

If China starts buying a lot of commodities that will help but if Europe and America drop their demand, it really would not matter. Two of the bigger points -- I expect most of the world will have economic problems in the next couple of years and that would mean China will have economic problems. China is a very large trading country now and if their customers have problems, they have problems.

Trump is talking about cutting taxes and jumpstarting the US economy. So I wonder. Wall Street which always wants lower taxes and more stimulus , are so anti-Trump?

They are anti-Trump because Mr Trump has said there will be trade wars. Everybody who knows any history, knows trade wars lead to bankruptcy and economic problems, If Trump wins, the market will go down in panic but then he will come out and say do not worry I have tax cuts, I have this that and the other and then there will be a relief rally later in November or December until people realize it cannot work.

Bond yields have inched higher from the recent lows. They are still at historic lows but they have inched higher. German bund is in positive territory, US 10-year paper is now above 1.5%. Do you think the rally in the bond market is over?

Yes, I think the bull market has been going up for 35 years, you have big big long bull and bear markets and bonds in United States. In my view that 35 year bull market has come to an end and now bonds will be going down for a long-long time. But I am not sure about bonds, there are mainly junk bonds in the United States.

Give me a five-year structural trade long or short. You can pick and choose?

Buy agriculture, short junk bonds in the US, long those two.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Yes I am a director with Spanish Mountain Gold

I knew some of the people involved with Spanish Mountain Gold, and they asked me if I’d be a director, and I said yes. It’s pretty simple.

I’m interested in gold, I don’t own any gold mining shares, but I knew the people, I was interested in them, I did enough homework to know that there’s a lot of gold in the ground at Spanish Mountain Gold. I mean, they’re not an operation, so it’s just an asset that’s in the ground, and some day when gold becomes much more valuable, will undoubtedly come out of the ground.

Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Bullish on agriculture globally

There is nothing wrong with debt if you manage it properly. If you borrowed the money for productive reasons to build factories, improve efficiency, earn sales, make profits and pay off the debts, it's great. But if you didn't or make mistakes, such as to seek too much expansion, you will suffer.

I am bullish on agriculture everywhere, especially in China, as it has been depressed for 30 years globally.

Monday, October 31, 2016

Jim Rogers latest view on elections, government policies, US pension funds

Elections in USA
I suspect [the winner] will be Mr Trump but whoever it will be it's not going to be good. I hope you are all prepared because there is going to be some very serious problems in the world. Trade wars always lead to bankruptcies.

I still own a lot of US dollars because there is a lot of turmoil coming, but then I think even the dollar will get overpriced and possibly turn into a bubble.

I wouldn't really own bonds anywhere in the world. If I owned US government bonds I would sell them.

On Australia and government policies
Every time the resources boom stops for a while the Australian politicians think it's going to come back any day and so they borrow huge amounts of money. It's astounding how you guys keep running up debt here. You have to do something about the debt.

Anything that has been in a bear market for 30 years when it turns around it's one of the most exciting places to invest. The single best way is to become a farmer or buy a farm and lease it out to someone else. I see good agricultural returns for the next decade.

US Pension Funds
Nearly every pension plan in America is under water. Some of them seriously under water and this is at the state level.

Investing in Water
I am wildly bullish over water.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

If you borrow money, use it wisely

There's nothing wrong with borrowing huge amounts of money -- as a country, as a family, as an individual -- as long as you're putting it into productive assets, building for the future. 

In the nineteenth century, the United States borrowed stupendous amounts from all over the world, mainly from Europe. We were a gigantic debtor nation. We put the money into productive infrastructure such as railroads and factories. And by 1914 we got our payoff. We became a creditor nation for the first time in our history. We then became the world's largest creditor nation and the most powerful country in the world. We borrowed all that money, but we invested it wisely. 

But if you borrow a lot of money and buy Rolexes and Porches and big houses... you are not going to thrive long term.

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

History shows that a Deutsche Bank failure could have dire implications for the world

RT News: Firstly just to make it clear why has the US imposed such an enormous penalty?

Jim Rogers: The main reason is that the US government is deep in debt. They’ve got a gigantic deficit – they are desperate for money. They’ll try to get it anywhere they can. I can’t imagine that Deutsche Bank should be liable for $14 billion, but I’m not involved.

RT: The bank said it won't pay anything near to what the US has asked for - how will this be settled?

JR: Either Deutsche Bank goes bankrupt, which is going bring down the entire world financial system, or they are going to come up to some kind of compromise at a lower number. If Deutsche Bank does have to pay $14 billion – you should be very worried anyway, but especially if they have to pay $14 billion.

RT: How desperate is Germany's main bank at this point? Will it survive without a bailout?

JR: If you look at its balance sheet you will see it has huge, staggering debts both on balance sheet and off balance sheet, which means their debts that they don’t reveal directly. It probably will survive if it has support, but otherwise we all are going to have huge problem in the next couple of years. I’ve told you before: you should be very worried. The western world, the world is going to have a lot of problems the next couple of years. Be worried!

RT:Just back in August the US was furious over the EU's decision to demand billions of euro from Apple in back taxes. Many see the recent scandal around Deutsche as revenge from Washington. What's your take on that?

JR: These governments do play tic-tac-toe and tic for tac over and over again, which is not good for any of us. But that is what they do. You give these bureaucrats power – they take it and they run with it. Power corrupts, it has been happening for hundreds of years.

RT: In the event Deutsche Bank fails what would that mean for the EU and the financial world in general?

JR: Then the EU would disintegrate, because Germany would no longer be able to support it, would not want to support it. A lot of other people would start bailing out; many banks in Europe have problems. And if Deutsche Bank has to fail – that is the end of it. In 1931, when one of the largest banks in Europe failed, it led to the Great Depression and eventually the WWII. Be worried!

Germany has been rightly telling everybody not to bail out their banks, but if they have to suddenly bail out their banks, then other countries will be furious and the politicians will have a field day.

Monday, October 17, 2016

Markets don't care about emotions, market care about facts

The UK pound can go down a great deal. If Scotland leaves it will certainly go under US$1. Sterling is in a serious bear market, serious period of decline. You got a lot of debt. I don't see anything to make the Sterling go up. $1 will certainly be the new normal. But that's not going to happen this year, that's three or four years down the road.................. 

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Monday, October 3, 2016

Chinese Yuan joins IMF reserve currency basket | Jim Rogers reaction

RT: Why do you think the Yuan is joining the reserve currency basket and what does it mean for the global economy?

Jim Rogers: It is joining because the Renminbi is now one of the most important currencies in the world. It is the fifth most commonly used. Remember, 15 years ago nobody knew there was a Chinese currency. It has skyrocketed and it is going to be even more important in the future.

RT: How will this affect the four major world currencies already in the IMF's reserve basket: dollars, euros, sterling and yen? Might this pose a challenge to the dollar’s international dominance?

J Rogers: The fact that it is in the IMF basket now is really just a publicity thing, it is not very important. It is significant that it is there. But that’s about all. Trade flows are what will change that. The fact that the British pound is there doesn’t help it, or the Swiss franc or anything else. Just because you are in the IMF basket means very little. What does mean something is trade flows, and as I’ve said, the renminbi 15 years ago was nothing. Now it’s already one of the most dominant currencies in the world.

RT: China has been the world's largest exporter since 2009, overtaking the US. What does the yuan having reserve currency status mean to traders?

Rogers: Eventually, we will all be using the renminbi. The renminbi is the only thing I see on the horizon which can challenge the US dollar to become the world’s reserve currency. It is not there yet, but it is moving and moving fast. The US dollar is a very flawed currency; the renminbi has its problems, the main one right now is you cannot buy and sell it. It is a blocked currency. But eventually that will change and it will probably challenge the US dollar…. In Hong Kong, you can use the renminbi in any shop you want. It is happening in Macau, and in Singapore there are people who will take the currency. It’s not big yet but it is on the way.

Monday, September 26, 2016

We can get rid of central banks.. it has happened in the world many times

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

History shows the most unlikely time to invest was actually the best time to buy

The lessons of history are very, very, very clear. Pick any year in history, whatever we think is true, that year, 1900, 15 years later, it's a whole entirely different world. And we all know in 1900 how the world is, and we should be saying to ourselves, find me a weird guy. Find me a strange guy to tell me how this is going to change. 1950, 15 years later, everything we knew, everything we knew was totally wrong.

So I, at least, have learned that, that lesson of history. And perhaps that's why I'm more-- not interested, more I'm excited when I start looking at the way the world is today and what we all know. Because I know what we all know is not going to be true in 15 years, no matter what it is. And my problem is how do I figure it out. How do I figure it out? Whatever we know today, no matter what it is is not going to be true in 15 years.

I've learned over my career, not just my career, but reading about the world, the stranger it sounds, the more you should say, wait a minute. That sounds really strange. Let me look at it. Let me hear what's going on. Because I have certainly learned that over my life, not just my life. You read history. You read anything. As I said before, the lesson of history is that most people don't learn the lesson of history. They ignore the lesson of history. Now, we all know that if we'd invested in China 1981, we'd be the richest people in the room right now. And yet, in 1981, including me, we would have said what's wrong with you? Don't you know about Mao Zedong? Doesn't he know about the Great Leap Forward? Doesn't he know about all this stuff, what "Chinese" is?

Or Japan: Don't you know about the disaster of what this country was? If you'd said Japan, don't you know about Hiroshima? The atomic bomb? You don't know about the dictator, the emperor? How could you  invest there? They're little, bitty yellow people who must be dishonest and cruel. But those are the lessons of history. 

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Why you might want to short the US

You have to be short and most markets are already down. There are very few markets that aren't down already in the world, except the averages in New York. Now, you can certainly short Europe, because it's going to get worse. You can certainly short the UK, because it's going to get worse. 

But the things that are still high, I'm sure your parents taught you to buy low and sell high. Well, the things that are high still happen to be the US, more than anything else....  You should be short the US. That's the market that's still the highest. It hasn't gone down yet. One can have shorts in any place you want, but the Japanese market is down 70%, 75% from its all-time. The Russian market -  who wants to short Russia? I'm long Russia. I mean, where are you going to short? Everything's collapsed. I'm not buying India. There was a recent remarkable development in India, but it's not enough to make me buy India. 

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Timing the markets is not easy

I'm a hopeless trader, fortunately, I'm not going to worry about margin calls, because I'm not rushing out and buying a lot of sugar on 5% margin or something. There was a time in my life when I did that, but that was a long, long time ago. 

Now I'm doing other things. I'm the single worst market timer in the world. I'm the worst trader. I know that about myself. I've learned it over the years that when I say, now's the time, I should wait another year or two. The problem is I do. I wait another year or two and I should wait another year or two, because I'm so hopeless and so early at most things. But fortunately, as I say, I'm not so leveraged or in such margin that I have to worry about most things.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Russians want to cut oil production

The Saudis have made it clear they don’t want to cut production and they are right, in my view. I am not Saudi Arabian so I can’t tell them what to do. 

The Russians want to cut production, that’s not what I would do. I would let the market play itself out. It is taking a while but the high cost producers are closing down and going out of business. You are forcing the high cost exploration to stop. There is no exploration. Exploration budgets are cut by ninety percent. This eventually means no oil supply, and the price goes through the roof again. Why would you sell your oil down at these prices if you could wait and sell it later?

Thursday, September 15, 2016

How bear markets start

The way bear markets work is something happens. It's a shock. People get over it. Then something else, and you know. In 2007, Iceland went bankrupt.  Iceland? Who's Iceland? What do you-- who cares? Then Ireland went bankrupt and the next thing you know, Lehman's going bankrupt. But that's the way these things always work. They start on an outlier, a marginal company, marginal country, and then it leads, and then everybody says, oh, well, we knew that. We knew it was a bear market coming. Well, they usually don't. They shake it off until it's too late.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

US Dollar goes up during turmoils because people think its a safe haven

I'm not the only person who knows there's turmoil coming. And people are looking for ways to protect themselves.

I own a lot of US dollars, though. Not because it's a safe haven, but because people think it's a safe haven. And when the world falls apart, people will put their money into the dollar. That's going to mean the dollar's going to go up. 

So that means a lot of currencies will go down, including the Chinese currency, including the European currency, the British currency. Many other currencies will go down. The dollar is going to get overpriced, and the dollar might even turn into a bubble, depending on how bad the turmoil is. If there's no place to go-- at the moment, people are also going into the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. 

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Jim Rogers owns plenty of Gold and US Dollars but not buying more at the moment

There have been times in the past when the dollar and gold have gone up together. So it can happen and it will happen. People looking for a safe haven. They think the US dollar's a safe haven. They don't know what else. They think gold is a safe haven. 

Therefore neither are a safe-- nothing is a safe haven. But that's what's going on. I'm not the only person who knows there's turmoil coming. And people are looking for ways to protect themselves. I am not buying gold at the moment. I'm not buying dollars, either, but I own plenty of both.

Monday, September 12, 2016

Precious metals and US dollar could offer some protection

Turmoil has already started. It may not be dramatic yet, but it is certainly happening and a lot of people are losing money. So it is happening now but over the past couple of years, you should be very worried.

Today if I had to do one of the other, I should buy US dollars. If you look around the world, the Japanese Yen, the Euro, the Rouble. Nobody wants these other currencies.... the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar. People are very worried about all of these other currencies, which is the reason the main thing people would buy is the US dollar, because they think it is a safe haven.

US Dollar Bubble
It is not a bubble now, but it may very well turn into a bubble. No no.... But it may very well turn into a bubble. In 2018 it would turn into a bubble, and if it happens that way, I hope I would be smart enough to sell my US dollars.

Thursday, September 8, 2016

China has said they will let people go bankrupt instead of bailing them out

China is going to have problems too. It's just the way the world works. In 2008, when the world fell apart, China had a lot money saved for a rainy day, and they started spending it when it started raining. This time, China has a lot of debt themselves. It's amazing how much debt has built up in China in just a few years. And so this time, while China's in better shape, or less bad shape than most of us, China's got a lot of debt, and they're not going to be able to help us like they did before.

Beijing has said we're going to let people go bankrupt, which I hope they do. They don't do that in the West. The red Chinese, the communist Chinese are going to let people go bankrupt, because they're good capitalists. Americans won't let anybody-- and the Europeans won't let anybody go bankrupt so they can save the world.

But China has said they will let people go bankrupt. It'll be a shock for the people who go bankrupt. It'll be a shock for the world. But it will certainly be good for China, and for the world, if they do let mistakes get cleaned up. But it will mean that they will not be able to save us as much as they did before. So the next time the world comes to an end, it's going to be a bigger shock than we expect.

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Russian government bonds returning great yields

My three shareholdings are all making all-time highs. I own shares of Aeroflot, going through the roof. Moscow Stock Exchange, going through the roof. PhosAgro, big fertilizer. I'm a director. Big fertilizer. Making all-time highs. I mean, how can this be? A country which is a disaster, which everybody hates.

I own Russian government bonds in rubles. The yields are astonishing. And as long as the ruble doesn't collapse or disappear, which it's not doing, at least not at the moment. The yields are beyond comprehension. If I could just have those yields for the rest of my life, I'd be in hog heaven.

Monday, September 5, 2016

North Korea is today what China was 25 years ago

If we all bought North Korean currency, we'd all be rich someday. 

Well, North Korea today is where China was in 1981. Deng Xiaoping started opening up in '78. Most of us, including me, either weren't aware of it or if we were aware of it. We ignored it, didn't pay any attention. North Korea is doing that now. 

There are 15 free trade zones there now. You can take bicycle tours of North Korea, if you want. You can take movie tours. I'm sure if [Kim Jong Un's] father were alive, he'd hang him. If his grandfather were alive, he'd torture him and then hang him, you know, for some of the things he's doing. I mean, you go to North Korea now, you see these astonishing restaurants with white tablecloths, cutlery, candles. I mean, this is North Korea we're talking about. Chefs. It's happening.

China and Russia investing in North Korea

They're going to be the richest people in China, because they're starting banks, and everything else in North Korea, and you and I just sit and look and say, 'Buy me a Champagne someday.'

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton - What they have in common

If Mr. Trump does what he says-- I'm just saying what he says-- if he does, it means bankruptcy and war," said Rogers in the interview. "I mean, trade wars. He is determined, he says, to have lots of trade wars. If he does that, that's always, always led to bankruptcy.

One of the, I guess, the main lesson of history is that nobody knows the lessons of history. Nobody learns the lessons of history. Even if you know history, which most don't, we don't learn the lessons of history. But they've always lead to trade wars. And trade wars have often led to the real thing.

Now, if Mrs. Clinton wins, same thing, it just takes longer. She doesn't have a clue what she's doing, absolutely, no clue what she's doing. And she'll tax us all and bankruptcy us all, sooner or later, sooner probably. Maybe a little later than if Mr. Trump wins. But either way, there's a bear market in your future. And the two people on the horizon, which apparently one of will win — it's as I said before, these things start slowly, a marginal country, marginal companies, and the next thing you know we're in the midst of a bear market."

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Bond markets could scare the stock market to decline

For the stock market to go down, something has to happen, and it could happen if the bond market scares the socks off everyone. 

The previous bear market in bonds was from 1946 to 1981. Since 1981, the bond market has been in a bull market. When bonds start going lower, and rates go higher, rates will go much, much higher. Interest rates go to levels we cannot conceive right now. I cannot tell you how high interest rates could go but in 1981 U.S. government bonds were at 15%. Right now, there is inflation, but the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics say there is no inflation. I don’t know where they go to shop, or where they send their kids to school, or go to baseball games. There is inflation all over the world, not just in the U.S.

Monday, August 15, 2016

Be knowledgeable, If you are prepared you might survive the upcoming crisis

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Central Banks can buy shares directly and make the bubble higher than ever

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Monday, August 8, 2016

Euro currency and EU will not survive

Jim Rogers on Oil, Economic Turmoil, Rising Economic Immigration's from certain countries, Agriculture, US Dollar distortion and More.

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Monday, August 1, 2016

On Deutsche Bank, China Gold purchases and Central Banks

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Buy quality assets you can own forever

I like to buy things and own them forever. 

And what success I have had in investing has usually come from buying stock that is very cheap or that I think is very cheap. Even if you are wrong, when buying something cheap you are probably not going to lose a lot of money. 

But buying something simply because it is cheap is not good enough -- it could stay cheap forever. You have to see a positive change coming, something that within the next two or three years everybody else will recognize as a positive change.

Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. The fund gained more than 4000 percent within 10 years..

Monday, July 25, 2016

Best investment opportunities available only on rare occasions so be prepared

The way of the successful investor is normally to do nothing - not until you see money lying there, somewhere over in the corner, and all that is left for you to do is go over and pick it up. That is how you invest. 

You wait until you see, or find, or stumble upon, or dig up by way of research something you think is a sure thing. Something without much risk. You do not buy unless it is cheap and unless you see positive change coming. In other words, you do not buy except on rare occasions, and there are not going to be many in life where the money is just lying there. 

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Jim Rogers reflects on Singapore and moving to Asia

I am keen on Singapore. I moved here because I had been lecturing for many years that everybody should teach their children Mandarin because it would be the most important language in the 21st century, eventually. 

And then suddenly I had a child and I said, 'What do I do now?' We had a Chinese governess, and it became clear it wouldn't work long-term. There comes a time when every 9-year-old refuses to speak the language because their friends say it's not cool. So I realized we had to move to a Chinese-speaking city where our daughter wouldn't have any choice but to speak Mandarin.

We looked at all the Chinese cities. They were too polluted. Singapore seemed perfect. They speak both Mandarin and English. Everything works. There's fantastic healthcare and education. My kids like it here very much. My wife, Paige, and I both feel it's a great place to live. It's certainly an easy place to live compared to New York, which I loved and still do, even though every time I go, I see it deteriorating. As for complaints about Singapore, they're minimal. It's not as bicycle friendly as I would like. And to my amazement, when I travel, my Singapore mobile phone gives me trouble. Even AT&T phones don't give me problems when I travel.

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Monday, July 18, 2016

I will not sell my Gold says Jim Rogers

Gold is going to turn into a bubble eventually, and when it turns into a bubble, I hope I’m smart enough to sell it. On the other hand, on the down side, I’m not quite sure that I can think of anything that would cause me to sell my gold. If nothing else, it’ll be for my children someday.

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Greece does not need to leave the Euro to declare bankruptcy

Greece is a sideshow that could turn into the main show because politicians keep making mistakes. What is best for Greece is to declare bankruptcy, stay in the euro, and start over. They will never be able to pay their debts. 

We’ve had states, cities, and counties go bankrupt, and they didn’t leave the U.S. They reorganized and started over. You don’t have to leave just because you go bankrupt. If Greece went bankrupt but stayed in the euro, we’d have a bit of a trauma but we’d move on. If they make Greece leave, it would turn into the main show.

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Monday, July 11, 2016

Debt worldwide rising higher and higher

In 2008, we had a problem because debt was piled so high, but now the worldwide debt is much higher than it was then. In the U.S., the Fed’s balance sheet has gone up five or six times. Worldwide, all of these countries are talking about austerity, but they continue to run up higher and higher debt. 

Unfortunately, the world doesn’t have the luxury to lower interest rates much more. To pump up the stock market, all they can use is printed money. The next time around will be pretty horrible for all of us. I hope that you,..... and I survive. 

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Friday, July 8, 2016

Asia will benefit from China's economic rise

China in my assessment will be the next great country in the world. Whether we like it or not, and a lot of people don’t like it. I don’t see anybody else that can compete with or replace the US. 

The 19th century was the century of the UK, the 20th century was the century of the US, and 21st century will be the century of China. 

Not just Asia, but China. Asia will boom and benefit, but China will be the next great country.

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Zimbabwe can start economically developing once Mugabe leaves

I started investing in Japan about three years ago, Russia two years ago.

I bought Zimbabwe shares. That's new, I didn't buy a lot. I haven't bought shares in Zimbabwe for about 25 years. It's a disaster but therefore cheap. What instigated me to start investing there again was that they completely abolished their old currency and started using US dollars.

The real new future in Zimbabwe will happen when President Robert Mugabe leaves. He's an old man and he will leave some day, and that will be the real change.

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Monday, June 27, 2016

Jim Rogers reacts to Brexit vote and other questions

James West: Quite the historical event. Brexit surprised everybody and delivered a “Leave” outcome. What do you see that doing for global markets in the near and medium term?

Jim Rogers: Well James we already have some countries and sections sliding into recession. This is just another straw that’s going to make it worse. Whenever bear markets happen, you always start having bad news, and makes them worse. We’re going to have a very serious problem in the next couple of years. You should be worried.

James West: I am worried. So how do investors play this right now? I mean is it a time to buy gold? Is it a time to buy treasuries? Should people be getting out of equities? Bonds? What should they be doing?

Jim Rogers: Well I can tell you what I’m doing but nobody should listen to me. They should only invest in what they themselves know a lot about. I’m short stocks in the United States, I’m long the United States dollar, I’m long agricultural commodities, I own some shares in China and a few other places. But basically I’m short the U.S. stock market and long the U.S. currency.

James West: I see. So Brexit really hasn’t changed anything for you?

Jim Rogers: No. You know, it just made it…I’m having a good day!

James West: Sure! Actually I was just looking over the last time we spoke a few months ago, and you very sagely said that markets were going to experience a higher degree of volatility, and I mean nobody could have forseen the Brexit vote which I guess was kind of an idea that David Cameron came up with. But certainly you were right in your prediction that volatility was going to be the dominant theme in 2016.

Jim Rogers: Well yes…you think 2016 is bad. Wait ‘til 2017. Its going to be worse.

James West: So you see this all moving in a general trend and bias toward more volatility, less stability.

Jim Rogers: Oh absolutely. You’re going to have Scotland leave the U.K., which is going to cause the U.K. to lose its oil income. You’re going to have Europe doing all it can to take business away from the City of London…The U.K. only has Scottish oil and the City of London. So when they lose both, you’re going to have a small country…England and Wales perhaps. But that’s going to have ramifications for financial markets everywhere, and when financial markets are having problems, it often leads to economic problems. This is not going to be fun James.

James West: Well it’s already not that fun…unless you’re a gold and silver investor. Gold’s up almost $80 at this point. The other interesting development that we’re noticing is that China markets are responding very favourably to the Brexit situation. Why would you think that is?

Jim Rogers: Well China – I’m not sure its responding favourably to Brexit. The China market has been down, and I think it’s probably just having a rally. Nothing else but a “dead cat bounce”. I don’t think it’s going up cause of Brexit.

James West. Hmmm. So you don’t think those two events are really related then?

Jim Rogers: If they are, I have no idea why. I’m not smart enough to know.

James West: I see. So in the face of volatility, you’re in agricultural commodities, you’re short U.S. stocks, how about precious metals?

Jim Rogers: Well I own some gold and silver. I haven’t bought them in a long time, but yeah, I certainly own plenty of gold and silver.

James West: I see, so you’re not adding to that position in the face of the Brexit outcome?

Jim Rogers: Not when something goes up six or seven per cent in a day, no.

James West: How does this affect your choice of primary residence? You spend most of your time as a resident of Singapore, is that correct?

Jim Rogers: Yes, yes yes.

James West: And is the reason for that because you see Singapore as a more stable or safer jurisdiction for protecting your wealth in the long term?

Jim Rogers: No James I wish I were that sophisticated. No I want my children to speak Mandarin, and Singapore is a Chinese country, so we moved here so my children would know Asia and grow up speaking Mandarin. And that part has worked in spades.

James West: Wow that’s great. So finally, what do you think the central bank response is going to be to this? I mean the Fed has obviously delayed again raising rates. But do you think there’s going to be a central bank response that seeks to ameliorate the volatility that Brexit has created?

Jim Rogers: Probably..they might go negative, but they certainly won’t go negative until after the election, if and when they do. The central banks all over the world – all they know how to do is print money, and drive interest rates artificially lower and lower. This is not good for the world James. This is not good for anybody. But they don’t know any better, but that’s what they’re going to do. You should be really worried.

James West: So is it safe to say that the central banks tools, which consist almost exclusively of zero or near zero interest rate policy, and stimulus, have exhausted their efficacy and there’s really nothing that anyone can do now?

Jim Rogers: They’re going to do it. It’s not going to work. It hasn’t worked so far. That’s one reason we have Brexit. Because when people are unhappy, they blame the foreigners. And so Brexit is the perfect example of that, and it’s happened throughout history. The British are unhappy because their economy’s not great, they’ve blamed the foreigners, they’ve come out of the E.U. It’s not going to help them – it’s going to make things worse. But people throughout history have often voted badly, and here’s another example of it.

James West: So would you say the success of the Brexit campaign is likely to have a positive effect on Donald Trump’s efforts to become president?

Jim Rogers: Ah well yeah although Donald Trump is more just the unhappiness of the American electorate, and by November, American’s are going to be even more unhappy. And I doubt it anybody will be even talking about Brexit in the U.S. in October and November. But they always look for a man on a white horse, or a woman on a white horse, when things go bad. And that has happened throughout history, and its going to happen again.

James West: So this event sort of underscores the rise of a nationalist sentiment in G7 countries, and do you think that then favors Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in the election race?

Jim Rogers: Well not just G7, I mean Belgium may split up. This is now giving a lot of impetus to people in Spain who want to separate….Italy…there are many countries where people want to separate, and this will give them a lot of clout. Some of them will lead to elections. Even if they don’t separate, it’s going to lead to more turmoil and confusion, and unhappiness, and when there’s unhappiness and confusion and a lack of certainty, markets don’t like it. They never have. And neither do voters like it, and they’ll vote for the man or the woman on the white horse.

via midasletter

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Buying when prices are low worked well for me says Jim Rogers

I was a confused university student and once I found out about the investment world, I did not go to a law, business or medical school. I went to Wall Street as soon as I could.

It didn't take me too long to figure out that many people didn't have a clue what they were doing in the investment world. I saw other people making mistakes, and I saw that following other people usually wound up being a mistake. It was hit and miss, so I stopped listening to other people and started doing my own research and investments.

So I tried to find things that I knew or thought I knew would be successful - usually something that was cheap or had a low valuation, based on however you want to value a stock. I realized if you find something that's cheap, even if you make a mistake, you're probably not going to lose a lot of money. If you're right, it could go up a lot.

Monday, June 20, 2016

Opportunities for agriculture exists all around the world

There are many ways to invest, the best being to buy land and be a farmer. Or buy land and lease it out or get a tractor dealership some place.

Vietnam would be a great place to be a farmer! Most nations with good land, good weather, and good soil would be great to be a farmer.

Go to the Congo, go to Ethiopia, go to Angola. There are plenty of places where you can buy land and do things. Even in China you can have a 60-year lease, which isn’t great, but it is better than a 2-year lease or no lease. There are opportunities, but the best is to buy land and become a farmer. You can also open a restaurant or tractor dealership in agricultural areas that will start to do better.

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Oil reserves going lower and production is declining

There will continue to be political and other disagreements within OPEC but basically they want prices to go back up though I do not think they will want to increase production. 

And remember that oil reserves everywhere in the world are going down except for the frackers and the frackers cannot make money at these prices. So you have a situation where reserves are already in decline and production is declining.

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Most of the Fracking in USA, Oil Sands in Canada not profitable at current oil prices

The frackers in America are going out of business and production is coming down. It will be coming down much more dramatically over the course of this year.

Deep drilling cannot be profitable at these levels. Most frackers in United States cannot be frackle at these levels. The oil stands in Canada are not profitable at these levels. Venezuela is not able to produce much at these levels. So if nothing happened, production will continue to go down and that will cause prices to continue to go up. 

They[OPEC] are ruining the people in the us who are in the fracking business. So they are doing what they said they wanted to do.

Monday, June 13, 2016

Long US dollar, long agriculture and short US stocks is a play on economic crisis

I expect very serious economic turmoil and financial market turmoil in the next five to ten years. I would expect in the next two or three years, you are going to see markets around the world being weak and maybe even collapse in some countries. 

In such a situation, I would bet on the US dollar mainly, because that is where people will go for a while, maybe some more agricultural products because agriculture is getting better and better. I would short US stocks. 

What I would do is go long in the dollar, and short the US stock market especially the Nifty-50 stocks and long agriculture.

Wednesday, June 8, 2016

Expecting Gold to go lower still

Gold went down in the last 10 days. I think people started to realize there is nothing behind it to keep it going and as I said before, central banks are going to slow down and may well raise interest rates in the next month or two. When that happens, they will take the fire out of gold.

I own gold. I have not been buying gold for some time but I own it. I still expect gold to go lower. It is not such a surprise because that is how markets work. Gold has been beaten down for four-and-a-half years now and so it is not surprising to have a rally. We have had three or four rallies like this during the past since 2011 when gold peaked. All of them petered out. I suspect that this will peter out too, but that is normal. All markets collapse, have big rallies along the way. Gold has had three or four since 2011.

Monday, June 6, 2016

Jim Rogers latest views on the markets

All markets are up because the central banks are printing more and more money, so it is astonishing for me to see this keep on happening. The Europeans, the Japanese keep on pumping more money. Even the US money supply is going up. Interest rates have been going up or down, but all the central banks continue to pump money into the system.

It is going to end some day. The markets went down, not by very much and all the central banks printed money again. I said to you before too, what happens is that markets go down a good deal, and then the central banks panic and print more money. I mean this is absurd what is happening to the world . We are going to pay a horrible price someday.

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Jim Rogers on investing in Russia

I was bearish on Russia for 46 years. I went to Russia in 1966 and came away with the idea that this will not work; this cannot work. And only in the last couple of years have I realized that something was going on and changing at the Kremlin. If I suddenly find this is wrong, that this is the same old KGB and the same old Kremlin, then of course I would change my view.

I would certainly lose faith if it turns out that Putin is deranged, or other people in the Kremlin are deranged.

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Monday, May 30, 2016

Agriculture sector is the way of the future

Buy some land and become a farmer if you like the outdoors. Otherwise you can lease it to a farmer. Make sure you buy land where it is going to rain and that you lease it to a competent farmer, otherwise you will suffer.

There are many ways. You can invest in seed companies, or you can become a tractor salesman, or set up restaurants for the farmers because they will have a lot more money down the road. Buy yourself a second home by a lake in the farm belt, in the places where the farmers are going to be.

There are many ways to participate and to get involved – to hedge if you will. Becoming a stockbroker is not the best way. Farming is the way of the future. But don’t do it unless you like it. If you don’t like it you will find out it’s a lot of hard work and will go broke, like many other farmers. Certainly many have gone broke, committed suicide and so forth over the last 30 years.

Instead you can become a journalist covering the farming sector. Depends on what your skills and interests are. As you look at your life, figure out a way to orient it towards agriculture. If you want to sell, sell something to the farmers.

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Do your own research on a Investment before investing

I first invested in China back in 1999 and then again in 2005. The market at those times was very, very bad. I invested again in November of 2008, when all markets around the world were collapsing, including in China.

So I have certainly made investments in countries with crisis markets, and I'm getting a little better at it than I used to be, because I have had more experience now. That's why I keep emphasizing that you have to know what you're doing. And by that I mean paying attention to and doing your homework on a stock or a commodity or a country. If you do that with a crisis market, then chances are you can move in and make some money.

North Korea 
It's illegal for Americans to invest in North Korea. It's probably illegal for us to even say the word "North Korea". I look around to see which countries are hated. In North Korea there is no stock market, and there is no way to invest, especially if you are an American, but sometimes you can find something in a secondary market.

Stamps and coins were the only ways I knew of that one could get some sort of exposure. This is because you are not investing in the country, obviously, because you are buying them in a secondary or tertiary market. That said, I think the US government is going to make owning stamps illegal too.

There were people once upon a time—and maybe even now—who invested in North Korean debt. I have not done that, but it may be another way that people can invest in North Korea. I don't even know if North Korean debt still trades, but it was defaulted on at some point.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Prices bottom when there is no one else selling

Certainly commodities at the end of the '90s were everybody's favorite disaster, and yet, for whatever reason, I had decided that it was not a disaster. In fact, it was a great opportunity and there were plenty of things to buy. In 1998, for instance, Merrill Lynch—which at the time was the largest broker, certainly in America and maybe the world—decided to close their commodity business, which they had for a long time. I bought. That's when I started in the commodity business in a fairly big way. 

Everybody had more or less abandoned or were in the process of abandoning commodities, and yet, that's when I decided to go into commodities in a big way, because of what I considered fundamental reasons for doing it, but the fact that Merrill Lynch was getting out buttressed in my own mind anyway that I must be right, because, you know, everybody was out. Who was left to sell? There was nobody left to sell at that point.