Monday, December 5, 2016

On the latest OPEC output cut deal

On OPEC deal announcement to slash oil output
Lets wait and see if they actually do it. We have had these announcements for 30 or 40 years, most of them have not pan out but it certainly makes oil go up today and it will probably go up for a while. The fundamentals of oil continue to improve. Exploration has been going down. The supply has been going down and will continue to go down.

On Iran 
They need money, lets see if they actually do it. I am skeptical.

Where Crude Oil could go
Crude prices fluctuate up and down. They have ranged between $40 and $30 and that will probably continue for a while, more likely towards the upside than the downside. Yes, $60 a barrel is not an unusual number. It is still way down from where crude prices were just two years ago

Own energy
I own oil but I'm a terrible market timer. One should own energy, as the energy reserves continue to decline worldwide. Saudi Arabia has not had a major find in many years, nobody has. Iraq, Nigeria and Iran nobody has found a lot of oil, except for the frackers. The fundamentals of oil continue to improve.

Trump effect on commodities
He said he is going to cut taxes which is great always for any country and he said he is going to increase infrastructure spending. So you have demand growing in the US and the countries supplying the US. The problem of course is where is the money going to come from. This could go on for a while certainly for commodities.