Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Trump has promised big but can he deliver ?

We are also eight years into an economic recovery in the US, which is also very unusual. Most times in the US, every four years to 7-8 years, we’ve had economic setbacks since the beginning of the republic. Again, it does not always have to happen that way, but it nearly always has. Yes, we are four months into 2017, but I am more worried about the next couple of years. Mr Trump has promised some wonderful things.

He has promised lower taxes, which is great for any economy and America is the largest in the world. He has promised to rebuild infrastructure, and that is wonderful, and we need it. He has promised to bring US dollars home—we have $3 trillion sitting outside the US by American companies and he has promised tax incentives to bring that home. He has promised to cut regulations and controls in the US economy—all of that is fantastic. If he does all this, and does not go to war, and also does not engage in a trade war, we can continue to have a good time for the foreseeable future. But I am skeptical because interest rates will be going higher, and because it has been eight years since we’ve had no problems in the US. For the US to continue this run, it can happen, but it has to be on a lot more debt. If all of that leads to a bubble…