Saturday, December 10, 2011

US does not deserve AAA status: Jim Rogers

With the US debt situation spiralling out of control, veteran investment guru Jim Rogers believes that the US does not deserve its AAA status.
In an Investment Week interview, when asked about what he thought of Fitch downgrading the US economic outlook, Rogers retorts “Where have they been for the past six years? The US is the largest indebted nation in the history of the world. It has nowhere near AAA status.”
In an earlier interview with Fox Business, Rogers had maintained his grim outlook on the US economy. “The U.S. is in fact in worse shape than Europe. Europe is getting the press these days because the debts are coming due but America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. The next time we have an economic slowdown it will be terrible. And it will be sooner than we all had hoped. I would expect it to be around 2012 or 2013”
So what does Rogers advise investors to hold? Gold. Obviously.
The US is currently in $15 trillion debt, with a slowing economy and rising unemployment.

Jim Rogers Interview: Abolish the Fed, Buy Commodities, Short Stocks

NEW YORK (TheStreet ) -- Jim Rogers is bullish on commodities, is shorting emerging market and American technology stocks and says the U.S. economy is in serious trouble.
Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings and legendary investor, gained international fame by calling the commodity rally in 1999 and loves contrarian investments. Rogers sat down first with TheStreet to give his take on the European sovereign debt crisis, the health of the U.S. economy, the possibility of a slowdown in China and his investment strategy for 2012.

2012 Outlook
What's the biggest risk to the U.S. economy in 2012?

Rogers: Probably the Federal Reserve in America because they don't know what they are doing. There are other risks: China is slowing down, Europe's got serious problems. They don't know what they are doing or how to solve it, but I would say the single worst risk is the United States central bank.
And that they would end up printing their way out of whatever slow down we are having?.

Rogers: They already are. They have already started printing money again. And they are printing a lot and they don't seem to understand economics or finance or currencies or much of anything else except printing money.
Why is that the biggest risk compared to say China and Europe as you mentioned?

Rogers: Well, first of all, China is a third the size of the U.S. economy. Europe and America are ten times the size of China. So even if China collapses, it's not the end of the world and even if China booms, it's not going to save the world.
It's important, it's very important but it's not the most important thing. China is trying to slow down and some parts of their economy are going to fail, collapse, they are going to have some bankruptcies.
Europe is certainly extremely important, what's going on there but Europe as a whole is in much better shape than we are. Europe as a whole is not a big debtor. The United States, as a whole, is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and we've got states that are in trouble -- Illinois, New York, California. Europe has states that are in trouble -- Greece. You know the names as well as I do. No, America is the one we have to worry about the most.
Most investors are now more worried about Europe, however, because they think that we are going to see Greece fail, Italy fail and Spain fail. So what are they missing? Why isn't that the biggest headline they should be looking at?

Rogers: These are problems. Don't get me wrong. These are serious, serious, serious problems. You asked me what the biggest situation is and I am suggesting to you it's the United States. Europe is very important, China is very important, Japan is very important, but America is the biggest economy still and we are the ones with the worst central bank. Our central bank understands less than other central banks and therein lays the risk.

Investment Opportunities
For a retail investor who is not a big hedge fund, who doesn't have all of the algorithms that they can trade off of, who might be say 50% in cash, 80% in cash, what should they do headed in 2012?

Rogers: First, you better make sure that cash is in the right cash. A few years ago many people put their money in Icelandic krona, thought they were very safe. They had currency and they were earning high rates of interest and of course the krona collapsed and some of those people lost all of their money. So make sure you are in the right cash, first of all.
Second, what I am doing with my money is I own commodities and currencies and I am short stocks. I am short American technology stocks, I am short European stocks, I am short emerging market stocks. That's what I am doing but who knows if I am right.


Friday, December 9, 2011

Jim Rogers: The problem of too much debt is not solved by more debt. That’s ludicrous.

Want to make money in the stock market? For investor and commodities bull Jim Rogers, "you have to own silver, you have to own rice, you have to own real things if you’re gonna survive," he told CNBC Tuesday.International investor Jim Rogers The CEO of Rogers Holdings also owns gold, which after 11 years of rising has been "consolidating" for the past three months. "I hope it continues to consolidate. I hope it goes down so I can buy more," he said.

Elsewhere, his strategy is to be short in U.S. technology stocks, emerging markets and European stocks, and be long on commodities, "because if the world economy gets better, I’m going to make a lot of money in commodities," he said.

He also owns currencies including the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the euro and even the U.S. dollar, which while "not a safe haven" is nevertheless where investors go in times of turmoil, he said."There’s lots of currency opportunities in the world," he added. "There’s plenty of ways to protect yourself."He said the United States is a bigger debtor nation than Europe, when taken as a whole. Europe has "individual countries that are involvent...but they're in much better shape" than the U.S., with several insolvent American states.But he is avoiding Europe as he waits to see what the European Union leaders announce after their meeting Wednesday.The Europeans will "announce some good things and everybody’s gonna feel better for a while," he said. "Eventually, people are going to say wait a minute, things are worse than they were before.
The problem of too much debt is not solved by more debt. That’s ludicrous."

Chinese Are Among Best Capitalists in the World: Jim Rogers

Chinese Are Among Best Capitalists in the World and have a strong entrepreneurial spirit.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Jim Rogers on the Silver Price

If traders like gold at today's prices, then silver should be bought first, says famed commodities bull Jim Rogers.

Speaking with India-based Economic Times (ET), Rogers, the man who looks and dresses like a gentleman plantation owner from Mississippi (without the accent), said, of the two precious metals, gold and silver, he prefers silver at this time.

“I would prefer silver because it is still depressed on a historic basis. Silver is 30 percent below its all-time high, he said. “Gold is 10 percent below its all-time high. I would prefer one just on relative value, silver is probably better.”

Talking like a bona fide billionaire, Rogers isn't going to play with charts and suggest a time frame for gold's ascent above the magical $2,000 mark. Instead, the alumnus of Balliol College at Oxford went out on the limb and expects gold to reach $2,000 by 2020.

Like many people in Asia, especially in India, where the audience for the Economic Timesis largest, he owns gold because he wants it—just as he likes all commodities that he can trade in a futures market. India is expected to import more than 1,000 tons of gold this year, according to the World Gold Council (WGC)—that's an equivalent amount of Switzerland's total gold reserves—imported into India in one year.

“Gold would certainly go to 2,000 [USD]. I do not know when it is going to go to 2,000, but I know it certainly would during this decade,” Rogers sidestepped the question of when he thinks gold breaks the 2k mark. “Whether it's an asset class or a safe haven is irrelevant, the fact that I own it is because I want it. The price would go higher.”

Maybe Monday's interview with Fox Businesswas a more suitable place to break any bad news from the 69-year-old father of two toddler girls. In India, the population isn't happy with high gold prices, as a lot of the precious metal is bought for ceremonial and cultural reasons.

In the Fox Businessinterview, Rogers warned of a coming meltdown next year (or 2013) in the world markets, much worse than 2008-9. As he has repeated said for several years, it's the US dollar that's the most troubled currency today, though blowups in other currencies throughout may precede the fall in the Greenback.

“We still have serious problems throughout the world. The U.S. is in fact in worse shape than Europe,” Rogers said, Monday. “Europe is getting the press these days because the debts are coming due but America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world.”

And as far as the euro is concerned, Rogers believes the currency won't make it, which adds another 27 percent to the dollar's 61 percent of total reserves held by central banks expected to decline in purchasing power throughout this decade. Under that thesis, he believes investors need to hedge themselves through commodities holdings.

“I own the Euro, but longer term it is going to be a disaster for all of us, the whole world, especially for Europe, because this is not solving the problem,” he told ET. “A year from now there is going to be more debt in Greece and in Europe. Two years from now, there is going to be more and more debt. Debt just keeps going up and nobody addresses the real fundamental problem.”

Monday, October 17, 2011

Rogers and Kudlow Agree: QE Is Already Under Way - Motley Fool

Rogers: Larry, if things continue to get bad, they're going to print more money. That's all Bernanke knows to do. He's going to print more money, and you'd better own real assets at a time like that.

Kudlow: I actually think the [European Central Bank] and the Fed is going to print more money. We're going to have massive quantitative easing to get out of this crisis, Jimmy. If that is the case, and both the ECB and the Fed go into QE mode, what's your favorite investment?

Rogers: Well, agricultural commodities is where I would be. I've told you this before. But Larry, they're already in QE; at least the Fed is. When Bernanke said in early August, "We're going to keep interest rates low" ... Larry, the only way you do that is you go into the market and you force them down. He's already in the market. He's lying about it. If you get out the M2 numbers, Larry, from the first week of August, you'll see they jumped up as soon as he said that and they've stayed higher, going higher. He's in the market. They're lying to us again, Larry. C'mon, you're a Princeton graduate; you should know how they do it.

Kudlow: "I do. I do. [laughing] And I basically agree with you, Jimmy Rogers. I'm sorry, I'm flat out of time, but I basically agree."

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

The only sector commodity bull Jim Rogers would buy right now

Jim Rogers is a long-term bull on commodities based on scarcity in a growing world.
Silver and gold "will both go much higher over the next few years," he tells Economic Times. Oil prices will recover as "known quantities of crude continue to decline." Sugar is going to "at least double or triple before this all is over."
But there's only one sector he would buy right now:
I am thinking about buying agriculture right now. I am not thinking about buying base metals or gold or oil right now, but I am thinking of buying agriculture maybe this afternoon. That's where demand will come first. Probably precious metals second, then the rest of the commodities.
Agriculture is facing some very serious problems whether the world economy slows or not because we have shortages of everything. The inventories are very low. We even have shortages of farmers developing in many countries. The average age of farmers in America is 58, likewise Australia. In Japan, it is 66. You have hundreds of thousands of Indian farmers committing suicide. It has been such a terrible business. Higher suicide rate of any profession in the UK is in agriculture.
So farming has got serious problems facing it. We are going to see much much higher prices over the next decade. So I would buy agriculture soon. The others, I am more watching the world economy and the world markets before I step in.

Jim Rogers: Is World Currency War Causing Global Market Meltdown?

Some quotes:
“The U.S. dollar is not a safe haven, if you ask me, but I do own it.”

“Agriculture prices [are] getting banged right now. I am kind of planning on buying Swiss francs, more dollars and agriculture.”

On China “They’re doing their best to cool things off … I expect them to continue to do it, and that is causing more slowdown around the world.”

“The major problems are coming from the west," “They are coming from Europe and the [United States]. We are much worse off than we were in 2008 because the debt has gone through the roof.”

“At least in 2008 there was the possibility that the governments could bail us out. Now, of course, the governments have gotten deep, deep, deep into debt themselves,” “Everybody is in much worse shape.”

Brazil sort of ignited a trade war [by putting a 30 percent import tariff on China and Korea ]. And right now China is trying to get the Europeans to let them open up the trade with China more. The Europeans are saying no, so China is saying, 'No, we won’t bail you out.'"

“I hope the trade war doesn’t break out" because throughout history when it does it has "caused depressions,” Jim Rogers added. “You saw what happened in the 1930s. It led to depression and it also led to war. So I hope it can be contained.”

Jim Rogers attacked Ben Bernanke stating, "is killing the people who save and invest, and that's really hurting a very, very large part of the population."

Monday, August 15, 2011

Jim Rogers stopped buying Gold, Silver

Investing legend, Jim Rogers has stopped buying gold, Silver and stocks and is upbeat on agriculture. In an interview to Garett Baldwin, Executive Editor of Investment U, Rogers said that agriculture prices on a historic basis are still depressed and that is where he sees the next opportunity.

Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund told Investment U that he has stopped buying Gold and Silver but is not selling as he believes that gold will hit and surpass $2,000 an ounce soon rather than later.

The present commodity supercycle will last for 20 to 25 years. So if this commodity bull started in 1999 or 2000, this bull will run until about 2020 to 2025, he added.

Sunday, July 31, 2011

Jim Rogers: The US is the Largest Debtor Nation in History - BusinessInsider

In his latest interview with The Wall Street Journal, famed Quantum Fund co-founder and investor Jim Rogers tells it like it is, as usual. Among other choice snippets, Rogers remarks that the current debt talk negotiations are simply a scam and a charade, and are just trying to get publicity. What follows are a few more, and you can view the entire video clip below.

On the US potentially losing its AAA status – The US has lost its AAA status. Anybody who knows what’s going on knows that the US is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. It’s only Moody’s and S&P that haven’t figured out what’s going on. The world, the investment world, the financial world knows that America is not AAA anymore. Who cares what Moody’s said? Moody’s has gotten everything wrong in the past 10 years, why do you pay attention to them?

On the US dollar – I own the US dollar because everyone is so pessimistic about it, and usually when that happens something comes along to cause a rally. Everybody sold the dollar under the current scenario, and that could well change.

On US long term bonds – I’m short United States government bonds, long term bonds. I wouldn’t lend money to the United States in US dollars for 30 years at three or four or five, or you name the interest rate.

Rogers- Prepare for a Lost Decade or More

Investor and author Jim Rogers gives his analysis on the US debt ceiling debate, and discusses his move to Singapore.

America will be in worse shape a year from now, Rogers believes, as Washington will continue to spend and drive the nation deeper into debt. Eventually creditors will say “no more”, and social unrest and a currency collapse will ensue, he predicts.

Rogers argues that if politicians deal with the debt issue now, the US may have a hope, after a painful period. “Countries that have gotten themselves into this situation never do anything until there’s a crisis or a semi-crisis,” he comments.

Rogers believes the 21st century will be the century of Asia. Consequently, he has given his children the skills of speaking Mandarin and knowing Asia.

You Think Economic Problems Are Bad Now?

Russia Today (RT) interviews Jim Rogers about the pending US debt ceiling issue and what all this really means for the future of the US economy and for the average American in general.

RT's Lucy Kafanov asks Rogers, "When you say that even if we do reach this deal everthing looks good for a little while but six months to a year it gets worse. What do you mean when you say it gets worse? I mean it's easy to talk about these abstract terms but if you look at the facts, 14.1 million Americans unemployed, over half of all American families live from paycheck to paycheck, more than 44 million are on food stamps. What is it going to look like for those of us who can't afford to move to Singapore?"

To which Rogers replies, "We are all going to continue to get deeper and deeper into debt. ... The overall situation is getting more and more serious. America is now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. This cannot go on forever. ... You think the problems are bad now? You wait until we don't have any more credit. You wait until the currency is collapsing. You wait until interest rates are going through the roof and inflation is going through the roof. It's not going to be a pretty picture. There will be social unrest. It's going to be a mess. But the sooner we deal with it the better."

Jim Rogers has taught finance at Columbia University's business school and is a media commentator worldwide. He is the author of Adventure Capitalist, Investment Biker, Hot Commodities, A Gift to My Children, and A Bull in China.

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Notes from Jim Roger;s presentation on July 21, 2011

On July 21, 2011 investor Jim Rogers gave a presentation titled “The Keys to Success” to a packed audience in Singapore.

Here are my notes from the event, Jim Rogers spoke for about 20 minutes before doing Q+A for about an hour. He kept having to deflect hot tip type questions. I think he has a very good memory, as he remembered one Q+A person from another presentation a couple of years back. Also, prior to the presentation I heard him ask another attendee about his mother whom Jim had met once before.

On being successful- “Find your passion, focus and persevere”. He was fortunate enough to discover Wall Street when everyone else thought it was a backwater. He loved the game and would have worked for free if he could have afforded it. As it turned out, it paid very well and he was able to “buy his freedom”.

He said the financial market has had its run, and for young people to get involved in farming and mining as there are shortages in both.

On thinking differently– Don’t just listen to people, investigate for yourself. Do the homework and learn the truth about a situation on the ground if possible, and from many different sources. He is raising his children to be independent thinkers.

On hot tips- He won’t give any! Need to do the work yourself or you won’t understand when to sell.

On having kids- “Get on with it!” Best thing he’s ever done.

On the US Dollar- "It’s a terribly flawed currency". But everyone including Jim Rogers is down on it, and when everyone goes one way, it’s often the case that the opposite actually happens. So he’s long US dollar.

On the Yen- Says he's done well with it and it may have a little more to go.

On China- Still very bullish on China. They have had 5 major leadership positions in world history. No other country can claim this, Rome was 1x, Britain was 1x and the US will most likely be 1x. China has proven itself over the long term- although they also have periods of destruction.

On gold and Silver- still likes them both. Thinks Silver has more chance to appreciate as its farther behind its all time high whereas gold has already hit it.

On commodities- Still in a bull market for commodities. Hard assets will continue to do well. He’s an advisor for a European firm that’s buying land in Brazil to farm.

On the US vs. other places- Go to where the money is. The US is now the worlds greatest debtor nation. You should go to where the creditors are. No one ever said, "They owe a lot money lets go there". Everyone's family moved to Singapore at some point- they shouldn't be afraid to move to a more opportune location if needed.

What Jim Rogers is shorting- technologies and a major US bank.

Whatever Happens, Commodities Win: Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers, the CEO and Chairman of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC that no matter what happens to the global economy, he will make money with his commodity positions.

"If the world economy gets better, I earn money on commodities. If the global economy gets worse then they will print more money and I will make money in commodities," Rogers said in an interview with CNBC on Monday. With the commodities market highly correlated with the greenback in recent months, Rogers said he is also long the dollar. "I am long the dollar (Exchange: EUR=X) as everyone was bearish. So I am long the dollar. In five years I may not be not be long the dollar but I am now. The dollar and commodities do not have to move in correlation despite what you see on CNBC," Rogers said.

Despite all the volatility on global markets Rogers said he was keeping it simple. "I am long commodities and own a number of currencies. I am short long-dated US Treasurys, I am short US technology, one major US bank and emerging markets," he said.

The short positions would, in Rogers' view, protect him if things get worse for the global economy and he believes the Federal Reserve and other central banks will protect his commodity positions by printing more money . With euro zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels and the Financial Times reporting EU officials are now discussing a plan to bail out Greece again will involve some kind of default, Rogers said the Chinese will continue to buy euro zone debt.

"Someone is going to take a haircut, Greece is going to default, it has to default. But for China giving money to the EU is very cheap foreign aid. They are getting influence for their money," said Rogers.