Monday, December 28, 2015

Jim Rogers on Bloomberg TV India December 2105

Bloomberg TV: We watch crude oil prices very closely. The price went down from $37 a barrel to $35. How much of a downside do you see out there?

JIM: I am not smart enough—$32 a barrel or $30—I don’t know. I am not that good. If there’s a spike down—if something happens like a bankruptcy—it can go to $30 or even lower. But, I would suspect, and I am not any good at market economy and I am the world’s worst trader, I would say $32 at worst as a complicated bottom.

Bloomberg TV: What are you buying? Or, are you just taking a long break from the markets after this kind of prognosis?

JIM: I am not doing much. I am sorting junk bonds as I said. I am sorting US government junk bonds. I might buy some more Chinese shares if they come down some more. I am looking at markets like Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Iran and Russia—markets that are beaten down. These are the markets that are beaten down because of oil (price slump). The remaining is that I am just watching at the moment to see how this plays out. I don’t have to do something every day.

Bloomberg TV: I want to know more of your trades. There is a lot happening across the world. Let’s break it out. Brazil has been rated as junk and it is a big fall in terms of sentiment. What repercussions do these have on the BRICS? What is your take on Brazil?

JIM: I am not investing in Brazil with my money or even your money. Brazil is such a mess and management in Brazil has been such a mess. Until they get a new leader, I am not investing in Brazil.

Bloomberg TV: China is being seen in a structural slowdown. Last time when you said that you had completely exited India and your bet was on China, there was a lot of debate. We are now aware about how China was really the wrong story to bet on. Are you still sticking to that?

JIM: Well, China has been the strongest stock market in the world in 2015. They are not the strongest but certainly one of the strongest. Anybody who says that must be losing money themselves because China has been a very good stock market over the past twelve months—it is up a 15 or 20 per cent. The American stock market is down during that period of time. I am still invested in China. I am still looking for investments.

Bloomberg TV: Many are expecting the Chinese markets or the Chinese economy to slow down structurally. What is your call on the economy because after all the markets are a reflection of which way you see the economy going?

JIM: Well, I expect nearly all economies around the world to slow down. In America, we have had nearly six or seven years without a correction in the economy or the markets. It is long overdue. Normally, we have corrections every four to seven years in the United States. So we are overdue. The debt is going higher and higher. Many of our customers are slowing down—China is slowing down and Japan is in recession. Now, I certainly expect more slowdown to come worldwide. As is said before, I am mainly just watching right now. I have sorted some junk right now—junk bonds in US—and I am mainly just watching.


Monday, December 21, 2015

Interview with Bloomberg News

Bloomberg News: What are you making of the Fed rate hike and the details of the statement?

JIM: As you know the market interest rates were already going up and the Fed once again just follows the markets. The Fed is just made up of bureaucrats and academics. They don’t know very much. Interest rates are going up. If you follow the Fed, and I guess you have to, the first interest rise from the Fed doesn’t mean very much. The third one is where you have to start worrying. If the Fed raises rates three or four times, then it is usually all over for the stock market. So just keep watching, be worried and be prepared.

Bloomberg News: So we already know that there is going to be about 3-4 rate hikes including this one. What is your prognosis for the global markets if you were to look at the new calendar year 2016?

JIM: I don’t trust the government officials as much as you do. I know they said that. Let us see if it actually happens. If the third interest rate hike comes from the central bank, I will certainly be selling shares worldwide. I have already sold junk bonds in America. I will sell a lot of bond short if that happens.

Bloomberg News: One of the direct correlations of what’s been happening around the news of a Fed lift-off is the fall in commodity prices along with the global slowdown. Talking about commodities—oil and metals—what is the sense that you are getting? How much of a downside do you see?

JIM: Well, I have hedged my gold and silver holdings. I expect gold to go under $1,000 an ounce. What does that mean for silver—$12 or $10 an ounce—I haven’t figured it out. But certainly under a $1,000 for gold at which point I hope I am smart enough to take my hedges off and buy a lot of gold—whether its $950 or $900, I don’t know. Base metals seem to be making a complicated bottom as do oil prices. They have been beaten down. There’s a lot of bad news. They don’t collapse anymore, which usually means we are in the process of making a complicated bottom that I suspect will happen the final bottom in 2016 if it hasn’t already happened.

Monday, December 14, 2015

Jim Rogers interview with RT news

Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

Kazakhstan has made some dramatic changes [in their legal system]. I was negative on Kazakhstan for decades but last year I noticed that good things were happening. They are making dramatic improvements and I’m getting interested in investing there. Because oil is very low, it seems to be making a bottom, which would put countries like Kazakhstan even better on the radar screen because it has been a disaster. But the country has vast natural resources and they are making dramatic changes from what I can see.

 I haven’t bought anything yet but I’ve instructed my office to find me a broker. That’s just the first step; it doesn’t mean I’ll do anything. But at least I’m interested enough that I am now looking for a broker.

via barrons

Monday, December 7, 2015

Switzerland vs Singapore, Hong Kong and other financial centers

I’m not terribly bullish on Switzerland long term. Their largest, or one of their largest industries is the financial industry, and they have totally botched it over the last few decades. They are no longer competitive. When you have a monopoly or semi-monopoly corrosion occurs from within and people don’t work as hard and prices go up. The Swiss had a monopoly on finance, but they got lazy and their performance was not good and their prices were very high. Singapore, Hong Kong, and many other financial centers are growing partly because the Swiss got complacent as everybody does after long periods of dominance. I don’t see the Swiss financial industry ever coming back to what it was before. This has nothing to do with bank secrecy or the rest of it, that is just another nail in the coffin of the Swiss financial industry. I don’t see it continuing to be a great dynamic economy at all. 

There are some strengths, people like to ski there for instance and people want to live there for many reasons including tax reasons, it is a lower tax place to do business. Anybody who moves to Switzerland now has to do so because he loves it, not because of the advantages that were present 30 – 40 years ago.

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Jim Rogers might invest in Kazakhstan

When I think about Kazakhstan, the first thing that comes to my mind is of course its steppes. They are so wide. I drove around a few times, and they are very vast. I am very happy to be here. I have been here more than 5 or 6 times. 

I have never invested in Kazakhstan before for many reasons. And one of them is that Kazakhstan used to be closed for other countries. But everything has changed and now I am considering a lot of options. I even have a list of companies, where I might invest. Everything is possible.


Jim Rogers is a smart investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1973. By 1983 the fund gained more than 4000 percent.