Thursday, July 11, 2013

China will succeed even with setbacks

I read all this stuff in the press. And I'm not quite sure how you tell 1.3 billion people [in China] they’ve got to stop building infrastructure and start consuming. That’s not the way the world works, at least with no human beings I know. It’s happening gradually, just as it happened in the U.S., U.K. and many other countries historically. There are going to be setbacks in China. Goodness knows, no economy or market goes straight up. They all have setbacks. China will have many setbacks.

In the 19th century, America had a horrible Civil War. We had several depressions, very little rule of law, very few human rights. And yet we became a pretty successful country in the 20th century. So China is going to have plenty of problems. What I plan to do is, when I see serious problems in China again, I hope I'm smart enough to pick up the phone and buy more China.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Sugar, gold, silver looking undervalued

Question: What do you think is the most under appreciated commodity story out there right now?

Jim Rogers: Maybe sugar. But I don’t really know. I haven't thought about it. Just find out whatever is down the most and find out where the most bears are. And that’s probably it. I don’t know whether there are more bears on silver and gold or on sugar right now. But wherever the most bears are, that’s where you should look.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Like Natural gas, Global oil reserves decreasing

With natural gas, what happened was everybody started drilling. And they rushed out and had a wonderful time. But now it’s four or five years later, and we’re finding out these wells decline very quickly. And so people are finding it’s not nearly as much fun as it was in the beginning, especially in the beginning when a lot of them had to drill acreage quickly to maintain their leasehold obligations.

I think the reserves may not be what we thought. And some of the gas companies have reported decreases in their estimated reserves because the wells dry up pretty quickly.

The same is happening with oil. The oil boom started later than the boom in shale gas. And we’re finding that those wells decline at the rate of, depending on who you believe, 38 to 69 percent in the first year. I don’t have a clue, because I've never drilled a shale oil well. But we do know that those are fairly short-lived, too. So this has been great fun, and it may last a while. But I would suspect it’s not quite the boom that the press seems to think it is. We’ll find out.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Long bull markets always end in a bubble or mania before it’s over

All these things will end in a bubble some day. Long bull markets always end in a bubble or mania before it’s over with.

And when there's a bubble in gold, I hope I'm smart enough to get out. We haven't seen a bubble yet. Until recently, if you went around any U.S. city, you would see signs outside many jewelry stores saying “We buy gold.” And the American people line up to sell gold. Later there’ll be signs there saying, “We sell gold,” and people will be lining up to buy it in big ways. That hasn't happened yet.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Jim Rogers thinks Malaysia is attractive

International investors can go anywhere, and they don't go to places where there are restrictions and problems, they prefer the open, exciting and dynamics places.

When people think of Malaysia, they think the government owns or controls a major portion of the economy. You have huge reserves, abundant natural resources and Malaysia is at the right place at the right time. Of the many countries that have opened up, I would say Malaysia is one of the most attractive.

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Oil reserves declining except USA

Jim Rogers on when the commodities bull market will end:

When there’s massive new supply coming on stream, then we’ll have the end of the bull market. But the world has consumed more agriculture products than it has produced for a decade now. But worse than that, we’re running out of farmers. The average age of farmers in America is 58; in Japan, it’s 66. Many of the industrial metals are now below the cost of production.

And nearly everybody has cut back dramatically on their expansion plans and investment plans. Oil reserves are declining pretty steadily around the world. We do have shale oil, which has caused a rise in supply. But that’s only in the U.S; the rest of the world has declined. Moreover, it remains to be seen how long the oil boom in the U.S. will continue.